Going by the latest results, the saffron party looks set to win 250-odd seats, way above the majority mark of 202 while Samajwadi Party is a distant second with 116 seats.
Here are the 2022 UP results, decoded in 10 charts …
Saffron dominates UP landscape
For a second election running, the colour saffron dominated UP’s political landscape with the BJP-led alliance set to win nearly 270 seats.
However, the saffron domination is not as profound as it was in 2017 as the Samajwadi Party has also recorded a major surge in its seat share tally.
From just 47 seats in 2017, the Akhilesh Yadav-led party looks set to win over 115 seats this year.
Biggest gainers & losers
While the BJP won the election with a decisive mandate, it ended up losing many seats to the SP.
As per the latest results, the BJP lost 84 seats where it was in power and wrested 22 seats it didn’t win in 2017. The party held on to 228 seats.
On the other hand, the SP saw a handsome gain of 78 seats where it is not in power currently and lost just 9.
The RLD too saw a gain of as many as 8 seats.
The BSP, on the other hand, was one of the biggest losers of the election as it held on to just 1 seat from its 2017 tally and lost 18 to other parties.
BSP lost most votes
The BJP may have lost many seats in 2022 but remarkably saw a rise in its vote share. Compared to 2017, the party’s vote share rose by almost 2%.
The biggest vote gainer this year was the Samajwadi Party, which bagged almost 32% of the total votes, compared to nearly 22% in 2022.
The SP’s gain stands in contrast to BSP’s loss. The Mayawati-led party saw its vote share drop by almost 10 percentage points, similar to what the SP gained.
The Congress also saw a dip in its vote share from 6.2% to 2.4%.
BSP and Congress reduced to ‘vote-spoilers’
Moreover, BSP and Congress together polled over 15% of the total votes. However, they are leading in just 3 seats combined.
In 2017 too, the BSP had bagged the second highest number of votes at 22.23% but won just 19 seats in return.
This dismal conversation rate shows that the parties have been reduced to mere “vote spoilers” in the state.
Victory margins reversed
Another interesting trend that emerged from the 2022 results was the reversal in the vote margins vis-a-vis 2017.
In 2017, as many as 63 BJP candidates won with a handsome margin of 50,000+ votes.
Only 17 seats saw a close contest, where the victory margin was fewer than 2,000 votes.
In 2022, the story is almost opposite.
Just 27 BJP candidates won with a decisive mandate of 50,000+ votes while 39 seats were won with a margin of under 2,000 votes.
This indicates that 2022 election was way more competitive than the previous one.
No major setback for BJP in Jat-dominated seats
Of the 24 Jat-dominated seats in UP, the BJP managed to win 17.
The BJP and RLD saw a rise in their vote share in these seats.
On the other hand, the BSP saw a big erosion in its vote share in Jat-dominated areas.
This indicates that RLD seems to have attracted more BSP voters than those who had voted for BJP in 2017.
Congress loses sheen in traditional strongholds
Once dominated by Congress, Rae Bareli and Amethi have all but ousted the grand old party in recent years.
Of the 14 seats in the region, the BJP is ahead in 8 while the SP looks set to win 6.
The Congress’s vote share in the region has been reduced to single digits, with the party polling just over 9.5% of the votes.
SC-dominated seats picking SP over BSP
Once a champion of the backward castes, the BSP appears to have lost its appeal with the SC/ST voters in UP.
Mayawati’s party failed to win a single SC-dominated seat in the state, compared to 2 it had bagged in the previous elections.
In terms of vote share, the BSP saw an erosion of almost 10 percentage points this year while SP saw a similar rise.
This indicates that more SC votes are now perhaps going to SP than BSP.
Meanwhile, in Dalit-dominated seats, BJP’s vote share has remained constant.
SP regains Muslim-dominated seats
The SP has done quite well in Muslim-dominated areas in 2022, where it is winning 38 out of the total 57 seats. This is a gain of 21 seats compared to 2017.
Conversely, the BJP is winning in 15 Muslim-dominated seats, suffering a loss of 22 seats.
In terms of vote share too, the SP vaulted past the BJP to register over 40% of the votes.
Strike rate & votes worth
In 2022, the BJP clocked a healthy strike rate of 66.5% followed by its own ally Apna Dal (S), which recorded a strike rate of 64.7%.
Strike rate refers to the proportion of seats won by the party out of the total contested.
The SP is a distant third, winning one-third of the total seats it contested – at a strike rate of 33.4%.
The votes worth figures again indicate how BSP was the biggest “vote waster” this year.
A quick calculation shows that on average, it took BJP 103,754 votes to win a single seat in this election. On the other hand, it took BSP 7,921,806 votes to win a lone seat.